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04 Sept 2026

The gas price is a geopolitical price

Oil has a hundred sellers and a global tanker fleet. Gas has pipelines, a handful of LNG exporters, and a shipping leg that runs through the same chokepoints as everything else. That is why TTF moves on headlines that Brent ignores.

By the Energy desk

Three prices matter. HH is the North American benchmark: cheap, isolated, and only connected to the world by the liquefaction plants on the Gulf coast. TTF is Europe's: a virtual hub in the Netherlands whose price now sets the marginal cost of power across the continent. JKM is Asia's: the spot price of a cargo delivered to Japan or Korea, and the number that tells you which way the LNG fleet will sail.

The spread is the story

When JKM trades above TTF, cargoes go east; when it trades below, Europe wins them. Everything else — storage fill, pipeline politics, a cold snap in Beijing — turns into a move in that spread. This is why a European gas desk watches a Qatari export terminal and a Japanese weather forecast with equal attention.

The shipping leg

Around a fifth of the world's LNG leaves the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. It has never been closed to LNG; it has been threatened often enough that the market prices the possibility every time the region's politics move. The transit indicator (see the Bridge layout) is a gas indicator too.

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